As Albertaâ€™s economic engine falters, now is a good time to rethink the province putting all its eggs in bitumenâ€™s basket.
When their crops failed, Albertaâ€™s farmers had the pluck to persevere. Thereâ€™s always next year. That resilience in the face of adversity served them well. But a next-year-country optimism is misplaced when applied to Albertaâ€™s unconventional oil.
Sure the world oil price will eventually bounce back and might lead to another oil boom. But should or can Alberta go down that undulating road again?
Whether the price of oil is high or low, there will be an Alberta â€œafter the sands.â€� And it will come long before all the carbon is extracted from recoverable oil in northern Alberta.
Climate scientists at London-based Climate Tracker calculate that humans can emit no more than about 565 gigatons of CO2 between 2011 and 2050 to prevent the world heating up more than two degrees Celsius. A two-degree rise will cause great devastation. Anything more spells disaster unparalleled in recorded human history. Last year was the hottest year on record.
Contrary to Mr. Harperâ€™s claim that greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) from Albertaâ€™s oilsands are â€œalmost nothing globally,â€� they matter. With one-200th of the planetâ€™s people, Canada produces one-fortieth of Earthâ€™s GHGs, as measured by production. Thatâ€™s five times the per-capita level of emissions as the world average.
Oil and natural gas production are Canadaâ€™s biggest sources of GHGs, edging out transportation. The oilsands are Canadaâ€™s fastest-growing source of emissions and the main roadblock to Canada meeting its international climate change commitments.
The problem is that the worldâ€™s coal, oil and natural gas corporations already hold 2,795 gigatons of carbon, five times the 565-gigaton limit.
Big Oil must not be allowed to release all the carbon atoms it holds. Much of the oil must stay in the soil. Oil-producing regions like Alberta will have to find the next thing.
If Alberta doesnâ€™t change course on its own terms, the rest of the world will force it to by blocking pipelines or refusing to buy its bitumen exports.
Four years ago, the Alberta Premierâ€™s Council for Economic Strategy, headed by David Emerson, warned that Alberta could not continue skipping down the bitumen highway. â€œThe creation of an affordable, environmentally friendly alternative to oil would be a great thing for the world. It could be economically devastating for Alberta if, when it happens, we are still heavily dependent on oil exports.â€�
The late Peter Lougheed thought it folly for Alberta to have such a narrowly based economy.
After flying over the oilsands in 2006, he remarked: â€œI was just up there on a trip, just helicoptering around, and it is just a moonscape. It is wrong in my judgment, a major wrong, and I keep trying to see who the beneficiaries are.â€�
Lougheed also noted that fresh water is more valuable than crude oil. â€œI can imagine an Alberta without oil, but not without water.â€�
An abrupt shift to a low-carbon society would create a wrenching and sudden depression in Alberta.
We must build a diversified economy while transitioning off the oilsands. New industries and jobs must be created around a green economy that builds on Albertaâ€™s highly educated and skilled workforce.